Well, it looks like we’re resigned to another second place finish. After four matches, the Turkish national team picked up a decent haul of eight points – but that’s already four points behind the Spanish without having faced them yet. It’s also less than the maximum twelve points that was not unreasonably expected. What can I say? Turkiye is an excellent tournament team but very average in qualifying. Compare that to a nation like Poland which seems to make every tournament before exiting stage right soon after. Second place is not so bad except it doesn’t guarantee qualification, which means the spectre of a play-off looms, considering we lost our last two to Lithuania (downright embarrassing) and Switzerland (not as bad, but still bad).

The campaign started well enough with a pedestrian victory over Armenia across the border. The real story of the match was Abdullah Gul’s visit and the BBC making a big deal about some virtually nonexistent ultranationalist protests (what’s news if it didn’t lie a little bit). The next time out, we drew a goal apiece at home to Belgium. I didn’t watch the entire game but I did see Belgium’s goal and it was as much a case of shambolic defending as anything else. By the way, Wesley Sonck – who scored the goal – is bundling them in at a fantastic pace for club and country, especially with his noggin. This was a game that Turkiye should have won at home but I wasn’t not too worried as their away form is pretty decent. Not to mention that there were more injuries than during that magical Euro run.

Then this past week, Turkiye struggled mightily. I watched the Bosnia game and I have to admit I held little hope of a victory when the Herzegovinians went ahead in the first half (I expected a draw). It was another case of horrible defending on a set piece. But this time Volkan threw in some horrible goalkeeping so that the defence didn’t get all the blame. But, seriously… about that defense. The largest problem in the Turkish squad is at center back. Servet, for all his ability, is prone to disastrous lapses in concentration. And he’s our best center back. We need some no non-sense defenders who can keep mistakes to a minimum. We don’t have any. In any case, a strong second half effort saw a deserved win but it was too difficult. Mevlut scored the decider and he’s a player that I have mixed feelings about. He scores a lot for French bottom club Sochaux but has yet to shine internationally. Still, I like him as an impact substitute when the first-choice strikers are back.

Which brings me to the major problem in the Turkish squad right now (I’ll skip over the goalless draw away to Estonia, which was pathetic): injuries. The top two players are missing – Nihat and Hamit Altintop. Two important players in Tuncay and Semih were also hurt. We could also include Emre, who is, unfortunately, the captain, but he shouldn’t even be in the team on form. Throw in injuries to utility guys like Mehmet Topal and Gokhan Gonul and you have to wonder if there’s some biblical curse on Turkish footballers. Perhaps the AKP can pray a little harder at the next party convention and get the big guy back on our side. Anyway, these injuries have led to two important problems.

Let’s start with strikers. It was strange seeing Mevlut and seventeen-year-old Batuhan Karadeniz (who doesn’t even start for his club, Besiktas) begin the game against Bosnia. Other choices for striker, like Semih, Tuncay and Umit Karan were hurt; Halil Altintop didn’t start; and Gokhan Unal, Sinan Kaloglu, Hasan Kabze and Fatih Tekke were not chosen. Still, strikers are relatively replaceable on the international level and Turkiye have plenty of midfielders who can help pick up the goal-scoring slack. Nevertheless, I’ll be delighted when Nihat returns and even more so if Fatih Terim decides to pair him with Semih from the start.

The second major problem is the missing Hamit Altintop. He’s not the type of player that will turn heads but he makes a team so much better. (Bayern Munchen have been missing him as well. I expect their troubles start to subside when he and Ribery are fully fit.) He was the best player on the team during the Euros. He brings the type of delivery and on-the-ball presence which is essential for a young team. When he returns, the team will be much better so I’m not too worried about current form. The next games are in several months so that’s plenty of time to recuperate form whatever injury he’s suffering.

Another major problem, aside from injuries, is the lack of a central playmaker, the type of attacking midfielder who strikes fear into the opposing defense and rips them apart. The yirtici, if you will. We have two good, young, speedy wingers in Kazim and Arda (with guys like Aydin waiting to break into the team) but there needs to be someone in the middle. Arda is obviously the special player in the team but I’m not sure he’s cut out for the central position – he’s better at wreaking havoc while switching flanks. With Yildiray and Tumer of advanced age (the former won’t play again for Fatih Terim anyway) we have a huge gap at playmaker. Gokdeniz is a wonderful player and plays regularly for Rubin Kazan but I’ve never seen him as a top eleven guy for the national team. He’s another one of those impact substitutes. So, what’s the solution? Convince Mesut Ozil to play for us instead of for the Germans. Whatever it takes, just get him to wear the red and white.